# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2025-10-01 (settled) · 22 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT01 · as_of 2026-10-25T02:57:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-01 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Ghislaine / Maxwell	ghislaine|maxwell	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Newscum	newscum	8	4	0.5	YnnYnYYn	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	10	3	0.3	nnYnnnnYnY	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Football	football	0	0			0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	8	2	0.25	nnnnYnnY	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	17	3	0.18	nnYYnnnnnY	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
McDonald’s	mcdonald	27	16	0.59	YYnnnnnnnn	0.45	hist	0	0	no	1
Slopadopoulos	slopadopoulo	2	0	0	nn	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	0	0			0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Panican	panican	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	0	0			0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	9	2	0.22	nnYnnnYnn	0.43	hist	0	0	yes	1
Taylor Swift	taylor swift	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	15	7	0.47	nYYnYnnnnn	0.4	hist	0	0	yes	1
TikTok	tiktok	20	5	0.25	nYYnnnnnnn	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
UFC	ufc	1	0	0	n	0.37	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	128	5	0.04	nnnnnnnnnn	0.15	hist	0	0	yes	1
Buttigieg	buttigieg	0	0			0.46	prior	0	0	no	1
Cracker Barrel	cracker barrel	0	0			0.46	prior	0	0	no	1
DeSantis	desantis	0	0			0.46	prior	0	0	no	1
Nobel Prize / Peace Prize	nobel prize|peace prize	0	0			0.46	prior	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	0	0			0.46	prior	0	0	yes	1