Will “Election” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 19, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jun 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Election
- Probability
- 38% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…also talks about deficit reduction plans in 2029, which is after an election. The Government are not going to be here after that election. They…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…at this Dispatch Box when she was responsible for steering through the Elections Bill. She said: “I have not read the Russia report”.––[Official Report, Elections…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…is obviously that the E1 settlement tender concludes before the Israeli general election. It was important to make a clear statement on where Britain stands,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…local green belt; indeed, he made it a key part of his by-election campaign in Makerfield. It is incredibly important in my constituency too, where…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…is doing. When I did it, we had just lost the 2019 election, which nearly broke my party. It was the worst result since 1935,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Election” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 19, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability “Election” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP