What is the probability “Inflation” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?

32%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Inflation” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Name: Prime Minister's Questions: “Inflation” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Inflation” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 11, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.

32%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 23:06 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Inflation

Probability: 32% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 PMQs: said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Mrs BadenochotherPrime Minister's Questions, 21 October 2026 · Oct 21, 2026In transcript

…going to keep borrowing more. We know where that leads. This morning, inflation rose to 3.5%, the third rise in a row. Families are paying…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Keir StarmerspeakerPrime Minister's Questions, 24 June 2026 · Jun 24, 2026In transcript

…International Monetary Fund and the OECD. Last week, unemployment was down and inflation better. That is because with this Chancellor, we have the right economic…