# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2026-03-17 · 16 words · K k:KXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR17B · as_of 2026-10-25T08:38:27Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-17 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR17B ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Friends of Ireland Luncheon, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	142	96	0.68	YnYYnYYYnY	1	1	0.65	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	103	71	0.69	YYnYYnYYYY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
New York	new york	29	20	0.69	YYYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.58	hist	no
Biden	biden	204	142	0.7	nYYYnnYYYY	1	1	0.56	hist	no
Iran	iran	73	48	0.66	YYYnYYYYYY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Golf / Golfing	golf|golfing	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Trump	trump	42	23	0.55	nYnYYnYYYY	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	170	92	0.54	nYnYnYnnYn	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Pam / Bondi	bondi|pam	11	8	0.73	YYYYYYnnnY	1	0	0.48	hist	no
Oil	oil	46	21	0.46	YYYYYYnnYY	1	1	0.47	hist	yes
Civil War	civil war	2	0	0	nn	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	34	9	0.26	nnYnYnnnnn	1	0	0.28	hist	no
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	1	1	0.22	hist	no
Ellis Island	ellis island	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	no
Emerald	emerald	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	no
Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day	saint patrick day|saint patrick's day	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	yes