Zohran Mamdani: Press conference, Mar 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his press conference?
Markets
15 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safety / Safer | Yes | 75%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 50%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | 50%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ramadan | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | Yes | 45%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Landlord | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 43%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Governor / Hochul | Yes | 40%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 34%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Muslim / Islam / Islamic | Yes | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | No | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Antisemitism / Antisemitic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FBI | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-MAMD26MAR12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP