What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Antisemitism / Antisemitic” next time?

28%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Antisemitism / Antisemitic”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Antisemitism / Antisemitic” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Antisemitism / Antisemitic” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

28%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 16:40 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Antisemitism / Antisemitic

Probability: 28% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…have been critical or have expressed objections to your plan to combat antisemitism and also following the backlash that you received after the statement on…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.