What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Muslim / Islam / Islamic” next time?

55%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Muslim / Islam / Islamic”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Muslim / Islam / Islamic” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Muslim / Islam / Islamic” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 12, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

55%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 11:58 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Muslim / Islam / Islamic

Probability: 55% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

One of the officers we honor today, Detective Didarul Islam, carried that courage to his final breath. Last year, in the midst of the most…