What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Bernie / Sanders” next time?

43%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Bernie / Sanders”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Bernie / Sanders” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Bernie / Sanders” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 5, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jan 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 2 speeches we have transcripts for (Apr 12, 2026 – Jun 4, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

43%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 17:21 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Bernie / Sanders

Probability: 43% · n=3
Settled: 1/3 (33%)
Last 2 speeches: said in 1 of 2

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

Can you shed light on why your former advance head, Valentine Sanders, got fired earlier this month?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.