Will Zohran Mamdani say “Snow”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Snow” at 5 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 4, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Zohran Mamdani
Snow
- Probability
- 52% · n=10
- Settled
- 5/10 (50%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | Snow |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Snow | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Snow | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Snow | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 16, 2026 | Snow | Kalshi | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Snow | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Snow | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Snow | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Snow | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Snow | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Zohran Mamdani say “Snow”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Snow” at 5 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 4, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Snow” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Zohran Mamdani: ‘Snow’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/zohran-mamdani/words/snow (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=snow · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP