# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · hearing 2026-04-29 · 20 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR29 · as_of 2026-10-25T08:33:25Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-29 · tn/th blank: no hearing transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR29 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of House Armed Services Committee - Department of Defense FY27 Budget Request , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	9	9	1	YYYYYYYYY	0.69	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	9	8	0.89	YnYYYYYYY	0.63	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	11	8	0.73	nYYYYYYYYn	0.57	hist	yes
Golden Dome	golden dome	1	2	2	1	YY	0.54	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	9	6	0.67	nnYYnYYYY	0.54	hist	yes
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	1	0	0			0.54	hist	no
Lethal	lethal	1	1	1	1	Y	0.51	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence 	ai|artificial intelligence	1	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.46	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	9	5	0.56	YnnYYYYnn	0.44	hist	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	8	3	0.38	nYnYnYnn	0.35	hist	yes
Space Force	space force	1	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist	yes
Anthropic / Claude	anthropic|claude	1	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	no
Oil	oil	1	9	3	0.33	YnYnnnYnn	0.33	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	10	3	0.3	nYnnYnnnYn	0.33	hist	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
NATO	nato	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Peace through Strength	peace through strength	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
Venezuela	venezuela	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes