Will “Budget / Deficit” be said at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Budget / Deficit” was said at the Political debates on 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 27, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 76% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- any candidate
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Budget / Deficit
- Probability
- 76% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
Next listing counts: any candidate
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Budget / Deficit |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Deficit / Budget | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Budget / Deficit” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Budget / Deficit” was said at the Political debates on 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 27, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
- What is the probability “Budget / Deficit” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 76%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any candidate.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Budget / Deficit’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/budget-or-deficit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=budget%20%2F%20deficit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP