Will “Refinery / Refine” be said at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Refinery / Refine” was said at the Political debates on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 14, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- any candidate
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Refinery / Refine
- Probability
- 54% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
Next listing counts: any candidate
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Refinery / Refine |  Kalshi | No |
| May 14, 2026 | Refinery / Refine | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Refinery / Refine” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Refinery / Refine” was said at the Political debates on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 14, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 14, 2026.
- What is the probability “Refinery / Refine” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any candidate.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Refinery / Refine’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/refine-or-refinery (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=refine%20%2F%20refinery · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP