Will “China / Chinese” be said at the next Political debates?

As of Oct 25, 2026, “China / Chinese” was said at the Political debates on 6 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 1, 2026 (55%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.

59%from settlement history only · n=11counts: any candidate
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes no no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
any candidate
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=china%20%2F%20chinese

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

China / Chinese

Probability
59% · n=11
Settled
6/11 (55%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 12 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 21, 2026China / ChineseKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Oct 13, 2026China / ChineseKalshiYes
Oct 8, 2026China / ChineseKalshiYes
Oct 7, 2026China / ChineseKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026China / ChineseKalshiNo
Aug 20, 2026China / ChineseKalshiNo
Aug 3, 2026China / ChineseKalshiYes
Aug 3, 2026China / ChineseKalshiYes
Jul 28, 2026China / ChineseKalshiNo
May 14, 2026China / ChineseKalshiYes
Apr 21, 2026China / ChineseKalshiNo
Apr 1, 2026China / ChineseKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “China / Chinese” said at the Political debates?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “China / Chinese” was said at the Political debates on 6 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 1, 2026 (55%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
What is the probability “China / Chinese” is said at the Political debates next time?
59%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP