Will “Mental Health” be said at the next Political debates?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Mental Health” was said at the Political debates on 6 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 23, 2025 (75%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 70% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

70%from settlement history only · n=8counts: any candidate
Last 10
6/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
any candidate
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=mental%20health

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

Mental Health

Probability
70% · n=8
Settled
6/8 (75%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 8 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 30, 2026Mental HealthKalshiYes
Aug 20, 2026Mental HealthKalshiYes
Aug 3, 2026Mental HealthKalshiYes
Jun 16, 2026Mental HealthKalshiNo
May 14, 2026Mental HealthKalshiYes
Apr 28, 2026Mental HealthKalshiYes
Apr 1, 2026Mental HealthKalshiNo
Oct 23, 2025Mental HealthKalshiYes

Questions

How often is “Mental Health” said at the Political debates?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Mental Health” was said at the Political debates on 6 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 23, 2025 (75%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026.
What is the probability “Mental Health” is said at the Political debates next time?
70%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Mental Health’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/mental-health (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=mental%20health · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP