# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-09-30 · 19 words · K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26SEP30 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:23:02Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2026-09-30 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26SEP30 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of CNN California Governor Debate originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Data Center	data center	1	9	8	0.89	nYYYYYYYY	0.8	hist	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	4	4	1	YYYY	0.79	hist	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.73	hist	yes
Billionaire	billionaire	1	9	7	0.78	YYYnnYYYY	0.7	hist	yes
Hospice	hospice	1	1	1	1	Y	0.66	hist	no
Refinery / Refine	refine|refinery	1	1	1	1	Y	0.66	hist	no
Wildfire / Fire	fire|wildfire	1	1	1	1	Y	0.66	hist	yes
Mental Health	mental health	1	7	5	0.71	YnYYnYY	0.66	hist	yes
Budget / Deficit	budget|deficit	1	1	1	1	Y	0.65	hist	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	11	8	0.73	YnYYYYYnnY	0.63	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	21	11	0.52	nnYnYnYYYY	0.61	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	8	5	0.62	YYnnYYYn	0.59	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	7	4	0.57	YYYnnYn	0.54	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	7	3	0.43	nnYnYYn	0.49	hist	no
Border	border	1	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.49	hist	yes
Newsom (3+ times)	newsom#3	3	1	0	0	n	0.48	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	14	6	0.43	YYnYnnnnYn	0.43	hist	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	1	4	0	0	nnnn	0.3	hist	no
Hollywood	hollywood	1	0	0			0.59	prior	yes