Will “Iran / Iranian” be said at the next Political debates?

As of Oct 27, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said at the Political debates on 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 28, 2026 (83%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 73% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

73%from settlement history only · n=6counts: any candidate
Last 10
5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
any candidate
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

Iran / Iranian

Probability
73% · n=6
Settled
5/6 (83%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 7, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Aug 20, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Aug 3, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Jun 17, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo
Jun 16, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Apr 28, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes

Questions

How often is “Iran / Iranian” said at the Political debates?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said at the Political debates on 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 28, 2026 (83%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said at the Political debates next time?
73%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP