Will “Trans / Transgender” be said at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Trans / Transgender” was said at the Political debates on 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 16, 2026 (67%), most recently on Aug 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- any candidate
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Trans / Transgender
- Probability
- 64% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
Next listing counts: any candidate
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Trans / Transgender |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Trans / Transgender | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Trans / Transgender | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “Trans / Transgender” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Trans / Transgender” was said at the Political debates on 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 16, 2026 (67%), most recently on Aug 20, 2026.
- What is the probability “Trans / Transgender” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any candidate.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Trans / Transgender’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/tran-or-transgender (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=tran%20%2F%20transgender · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP