Will Mark Carney say “Russia / Russian”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Russia / Russian” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 8, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Carney
Russia / Russian
- Probability
- 37% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Mark Carney yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Russia / Russian |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Russia / Russian | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Russia / Russian | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Russia / Russian | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Mark Carney say “Russia / Russian”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Russia / Russian” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 8, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Carney says “Russia / Russian” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Carney: ‘Russia / Russian’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-carney/words/russia-or-russian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=russia%20%2F%20russian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-carney&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP