SpaceX (SPCX): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 20, 2026
On its Oct 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), SpaceX said 14 of the 22 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 22 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
22 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 22 of 22- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starlink | Yes | 39 | 40 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starship | Yes | 26 | 26 | ✓ | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok | Yes | 16 | 18 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cursor | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 87%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starshield | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 21%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tesla | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 61%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starbase | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 71%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starmind | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 69%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| NASA | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 15%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Moon | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 87%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Artemis | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 61%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Combine / Combining | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 17%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| ISS / International Space Station | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 17%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| NVIDIA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 86%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 84%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 83%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Colossus | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| T-Mobile | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Unlock / Lock Up | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Mars | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 13:56 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
40 matches for “Starlink”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
Hello, everyone. We are coming to you live from our Starlink factory and future Starlink production site here in Bastrop, Texas. I'm Andrea Williams, Head…
…Starship made it to orbit for the first time and deployed operational Starlink V3 satellites. I think we have a recap video we're going to…
…realize how important it is, but it will be obvious in hindsight. Starlink is also just getting started. Flight 14 deployed 26 terabits per second…
…that we will have about 100 times the bandwidth of the current Starlink constellation. Because we will have launched satellites with an order of magnitude…
I think revenue for Starlink will be at least somewhat proportionate to the total bandwidth limit, and we will also have direct-to-cell, high-bandwidth direct-to-cell capability,…
Where the listed words were said
…orbit. During the third quarter, our 35 launches included 21 flights of Starlink on Falcon 9, 2 flights of Starship, a Falcon Heavy, which I'll…
…this succeeds next flight. If not, we have a steady stream of Starship flight attempts through the end of this year, and then accelerating next…
…on our dedicated earnings Q&A platform, which the SpaceX team built with Grok. During this webcast, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking…
…more in the near term. At the same time, the integration of Cursor continues to progress well, strengthening both our product capabilities and our go-to-market…
…connectivity is quickly becoming table stakes for passengers. On the government side, Starshield continues to deliver unique mission-critical capabilities, and we see further room for…
…have to be thoughtful about what I say here. Both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea, at the request of…
…production, advancing Mega bay construction, and progressing multiple launch pads at both Starbase and the Cape. Importantly, we secured the location for the next phase…
…on-orbit refueling early next year, and we'll begin flying mobile V2 and Starmind satellites in 2027. We have had significant constructive engagement with the FAA,…
…will take us through 2028, along with the Starlink communications contract on NASA's Artemis III mission. In addition, we signed 18 new national security space…
…build the space economy in orbit and on other planets and the moon. As Elon said, Starship Flight 14 was a major technical milestone, and…
…that is almost 90% of all mass to orbit of Earth, where China is about, I think, roughly 6%, and the rest of the world…
…will. But I do think there is a lot of merit to combining the companies, as we are pretty much in the super intelligent singularity.…
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