SpaceX (SPCX): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 20, 2026
On its Oct 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), SpaceX said 14 of the 22 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 22 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
22 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 22 of 22- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starlink | Yes | 39 | 40 | ✓ | 95%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starship | Yes | 26 | 26 | ✓ | 96%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok | Yes | 16 | 18 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cursor | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 87%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starshield | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 21%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tesla | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 61%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starbase | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 71%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starmind | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 69%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| NASA | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 15%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Moon | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 87%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Artemis | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 61%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Combine / Combining | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 17%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| ISS / International Space Station | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 17%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| NVIDIA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 86%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 84%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 83%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Colossus | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| T-Mobile | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Unlock / Lock Up | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Mars | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 13:56 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
27 matches for “Launch”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
Thank you. We are in an inflection moment for SpaceX across launch connectivity and superintelligence. Starting with Starship, flight 14 was a critical milestone. Starship…
…If we succeed, it will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered. This is a massive technology milestone. The…
…at some point, probably have on the order of 20 or more launch towers, and enable the transport of millions of tons per year to…
…that by the end of next year. The rate at which we launch Starship will increase dramatically as we solve the rapid and complete reusability.
…for any refurbishment, such that you can immediately land the rocket and launch it again, just like an airplane. As I said, this is a…
Where the listed words were said
Hello, everyone. We are coming to you live from our Starlink factory and future Starlink production site here in Bastrop, Texas. I'm Andrea Williams, Head…
…this succeeds next flight. If not, we have a steady stream of Starship flight attempts through the end of this year, and then accelerating next…
…on our dedicated earnings Q&A platform, which the SpaceX team built with Grok. During this webcast, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking…
…more in the near term. At the same time, the integration of Cursor continues to progress well, strengthening both our product capabilities and our go-to-market…
…connectivity is quickly becoming table stakes for passengers. On the government side, Starshield continues to deliver unique mission-critical capabilities, and we see further room for…
…have to be thoughtful about what I say here. Both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea, at the request of…
…production, advancing Mega bay construction, and progressing multiple launch pads at both Starbase and the Cape. Importantly, we secured the location for the next phase…
…on-orbit refueling early next year, and we'll begin flying mobile V2 and Starmind satellites in 2027. We have had significant constructive engagement with the FAA,…
…12 high-profile customer missions, including the Falcon Heavy launch, which we flew NASA's Roman Space Telescope into deep space. We also flew 6 national security…
…build the space economy in orbit and on other planets and the moon. As Elon said, Starship Flight 14 was a major technical milestone, and…
…that is almost 90% of all mass to orbit of Earth, where China is about, I think, roughly 6%, and the rest of the world…
…will. But I do think there is a lot of merit to combining the companies, as we are pretty much in the super intelligent singularity.…
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