Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), October 14, 2026

On the Oct 14, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 15 of the 20 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.

Updated

Markets

20 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Think Yes104104✓83%n=6 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ timesYes8484✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Money Yes4141✓92%n=13 from settlement history–
Actually Yes3333✓87%n=8 from settlement history–
Korea / Korean Yes2222✓37%n=7 from settlement history–
Problem Yes2121✓81%n=5 from settlement history–
Trump 10+ timesYes1616✓51%n=8 from settlement history–
Different Yes1313✓81%n=5 from settlement history–
Iran / Iranian Yes1111✓78%n=4 from settlement history–
Ukraine / Ukrainian Yes77✓78%n=4 from settlement history–
Car / Vehicle Yes66✓62%n=6 from settlement history–
Honestly Yes11✓87%n=8 from settlement history–
China / Chinese Yes11✓86%n=15 from settlement history–
Blue Yes11✓60%n=16 from settlement history–
Green Yes11✓57%n=5 from settlement history–
Red No00✓65%n=16 from settlement history–
World Cup No00✓60%n=3 from settlement history–
Nordic No00✓54%n=2 from settlement history–
Legality No00✓24%n=5 from settlement history–
Collateral No00✓23%n=9 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

quotes of at most 25 words

Machine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.

Machine-attributed. Speaker turns are labelled by a model, not the publisher.

7 matches for “Technology”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.

Speaker not labelled22:13

…right. So somehow you need to good luck transition from where we are to where I'm. Transition. Because all this crazy world, it's changing technology.

Speaker not labelled22:46

…is one of the cases where you can look at a new technology and be like holy shit this is absolutely incredible that this exists…

Speaker not labelled27:25

And this technology is allowing him to control a computer. And these are just the early stages. Another just quick one I thought was fun.…

Speaker not labelled32:21

…applications of what these mean, like way down the line, as this technology gets better and better and more available is, uh, simultaneously amazing and…

Speaker not labelled33:10

…think broadly in the medical space, there's still like really cool stuff happening right now, even though technology broadly, I think, feels a little annoying.

Where the listed words were said

Speaker not labelled“Think” · 2:14

…yields and some stuff about Neuralink and mathematics in the UK and brands and creators. It's a wild and wacky week. I think I speak

Speaker not labelled“AI / Artificial Intelligence (15+)” · 35:28

…human technology and ingenuity. It is phenomenal. And then long term, his goal is to achieve symbiosis with artificial intelligence. So that is the downside.

Speaker not labelled“Money” · 10:15

…NFTs? I'm trying to pitch my NFT here. Yeah, I mean, presumably Russia is still just making a ton of money from selling gas, right?

Speaker not labelled“Actually” · 6:11

…you contextualize this with the grand demand for diesel fuel, this is actually not that much that the U S is important. This deal is…

Speaker not labelled“Korea / Korean” · 8:53

…months ago, because refinery capacity in Russia is so limited right now, Russia has been importing diesel from South Korea over the last couple months.

Speaker not labelled“Problem” · 7:24

…what's interesting, this is unconfirmed, but Russia before this had banned diesel exports in general because they have a diesel problem in their own country.

Speaker not labelled“Trump (10+)” · 2:32

But let's start off. Let's move over to Trump and Russia because my gas is getting pretty expensive, Aiden. And it's mostly because of this…

Speaker not labelled“Different” · 24:39

…in this case is monkey the right term no chimp these are different right let me cut that you're gonna get canceled on monkey i…

Speaker not labelled“Iran / Iranian” · 7:45

So they're in, the Iranian tankers were spotted dropping off diesel in Russia. And so the idea is that they're just buying Iranian diesel and…

Speaker not labelled“Ukraine / Ukrainian” · 3:04

…precedent because we've had sanctions on Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine war. And we have not been accepting any of their diesel fuel…

Speaker not labelled“Car / Vehicle” · 3:28

…people, you know, whether or not they need to fill their own car with diesel. It affects the prices of everything that is transported or…

Speaker not labelled“Honestly” · 25:17

pretty good at this game honestly he's doing amazing audio listeners we're watching a monkey move a basically a mouse across the screen to like…

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-10-14:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-10-14:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP