Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), October 14, 2026
On the Oct 14, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 15 of the 20 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Think | Yes | 104 | 104 | ✓ | 83%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times | Yes | 84 | 84 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Money | Yes | 41 | 41 | ✓ | 92%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Actually | Yes | 33 | 33 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Korea / Korean | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Problem | Yes | 21 | 21 | ✓ | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Different | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Car / Vehicle | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Honestly | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 86%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 60%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Green | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Red | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 65%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nordic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Legality | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Collateral | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
7 matches for “Iran”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Ukraine. And so for them to get even 300,000 tons out is something. And there's unconfirmed reports that some of it is imported from Iran.
…and Russia gets a skim off the top. So we're just funding Iran and Russia to get diesel for, you know, it doesn't make a…
…have done would have not spiked energy prices with a war in Iran, which by the way, I think we're on day, what do we…
…we've got some interesting things but i think the opener was about how you You know, the Iran war is three wins in a row.
…this is all the consequences of a really, really necessary war in Iran, which I'm glad is, is, uh, I mean, do you think? Oh,…
Where the listed words were said
…yields and some stuff about Neuralink and mathematics in the UK and brands and creators. It's a wild and wacky week. I think I speak
…this, especially the video games, in the same way that something like AI was being tested on like Dota and StarCraft and Go early on.…
…NFTs? I'm trying to pitch my NFT here. Yeah, I mean, presumably Russia is still just making a ton of money from selling gas, right?
…you contextualize this with the grand demand for diesel fuel, this is actually not that much that the U S is important. This deal is…
…months ago, because refinery capacity in Russia is so limited right now, Russia has been importing diesel from South Korea over the last couple months.
…money will just flow back in i do not see what the problem is yeah i think actually there was a quote from trump recently…
But let's start off. Let's move over to Trump and Russia because my gas is getting pretty expensive, Aiden. And it's mostly because of this…
…in this case is monkey the right term no chimp these are different right let me cut that you're gonna get canceled on monkey i…
It would be for real. Let's talk about Iran right now. I'm character AI. I think we're character AI, but I, you know, if we…
…precedent because we've had sanctions on Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine war. And we have not been accepting any of their diesel fuel…
…people, you know, whether or not they need to fill their own car with diesel. It affects the prices of everything that is transported or…
pretty good at this game honestly he's doing amazing audio listeners we're watching a monkey move a basically a mouse across the screen to like…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-10-14:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-10-14:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP