Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), October 14, 2026
On the Oct 14, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 15 of the 20 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Think | Yes | 104 | 104 | ✓ | 83%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times | Yes | 84 | 84 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Money | Yes | 41 | 41 | ✓ | 92%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Actually | Yes | 33 | 33 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Korea / Korean | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Problem | Yes | 21 | 21 | ✓ | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Different | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Car / Vehicle | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Honestly | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 86%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 60%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Green | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Red | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 65%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nordic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Legality | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Collateral | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
28 matches for “Brain”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…and the idea is can we put a chip in the human brain that connects into the brain via threads like literal like a sewing…
So they, they install this chip into the chimpanzees brain and they have the chimpanzees start doing actions with a computer. They're moving this joystick…
…was using a joystick to control a cursor but they tracked the brain signals and over time realized they can actually just see what the…
…game was pong and this is again it is it is controlling this through its brain because over time they picked up what kind of
…he, this is here a video of him playing chess with his brain. The chip that they installed has threads into his brain, which over…
Where the listed words were said
…yields and some stuff about Neuralink and mathematics in the UK and brands and creators. It's a wild and wacky week. I think I speak
…this, especially the video games, in the same way that something like AI was being tested on like Dota and StarCraft and Go early on.…
…NFTs? I'm trying to pitch my NFT here. Yeah, I mean, presumably Russia is still just making a ton of money from selling gas, right?
…you contextualize this with the grand demand for diesel fuel, this is actually not that much that the U S is important. This deal is…
…months ago, because refinery capacity in Russia is so limited right now, Russia has been importing diesel from South Korea over the last couple months.
…what's interesting, this is unconfirmed, but Russia before this had banned diesel exports in general because they have a diesel problem in their own country.
But let's start off. Let's move over to Trump and Russia because my gas is getting pretty expensive, Aiden. And it's mostly because of this…
…in this case is monkey the right term no chimp these are different right let me cut that you're gonna get canceled on monkey i…
So they're in, the Iranian tankers were spotted dropping off diesel in Russia. And so the idea is that they're just buying Iranian diesel and…
…precedent because we've had sanctions on Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine war. And we have not been accepting any of their diesel fuel…
…people, you know, whether or not they need to fill their own car with diesel. It affects the prices of everything that is transported or…
So for example, BlackRock, Neurotech, uh, NeoCyber is a Chinese state one. That's doing similar things. Synchron is a New York, uh, city based American…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-10-14:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-10-14:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP