Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), October 7, 2026
On the Oct 7, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 13 of the 20 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 19 of 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 19 of 20- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Think | Yes | 110 | 110 | ✓ | 83%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 46 | 46 | ✓ | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 30 | 30 | ✓ | 91%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Actually | Yes | 26 | 26 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Different | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nordic | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Problem | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 63%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Car / Vehicle | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Honestly | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 85%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times | No | 15 | 15 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Green | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Korea / Korean | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Legality | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Collateral | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
14 matches for “Market”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…again, this would be a massive, massive upset if Tallarico can win in Texas. For audio listeners, he's 68% on like Kalshi, a prediction market.
…This is not a guarantee. Like 66% does not mean it is a win, obviously. And this is a prediction market. This is not truth.
…ability either in like mathematics or analysis to take advantage of information available out in the public to find the alpha in poly market trades.
…it why am i not funhouse trading platform right is that correct right trading yeah coinbase is like trading market trading platform for events that
…i think exact phrasing was used in the demands for the poly market case that just came out as well but what is also interesting…
Where the listed words were said
…on Lemonade Stand and I've been arguing with these two because I think Michael Babaro would be the perfect guest on The Yard and you…
…If you pull up, and especially we're going to be talking- I'm nicer than Trump is. You see Trump talking about Ken Paxton? It's crazy.
…on TV. Holy fuck! New York Times reported that Trump personally directed the White House budget director to use taxpayer money for these TV spots.
…some degree of political ads that are riling up right now. And I thought that there were two very interesting ones that I actually happened.
disconnect as to like what this technology means to different people right like this older judge doesn't even, he's literally in the opposite direction of…
…And then you top it off with the rising fuel costs from the war in Iran. So you have a place that like all the
…the check. But we didn't win. Okay, I do. I have the Nordic fun fact next. Yes, dude. But I want to hold on to…
Like their energy security is a big problem right now. And it's just, that's fucking wild to think about the level of influence that another…
…not. Yeah. Do you know what the the output is on the Red Sea side? Yeah. Like how much does that play a part right…
…you guys see the story of the man who died in a vehicle accident? And then when the judge was deciding the punishment, the defendant…
…was cool. I like that all those Nordic funbacks end up in Ukraine eventually. You know there's other countries, Hayden. Not just Ukraine and Russia…
Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Nuance is dead. Honestly, I did want to make a quick comment about it, which was, I think, like, it's funny…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-10-07:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-10-07:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP