Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), October 7, 2026
On the Oct 7, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 13 of the 20 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 19 of 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 19 of 20- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Think | Yes | 110 | 110 | ✓ | 83%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 46 | 46 | ✓ | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 30 | 30 | ✓ | 91%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Actually | Yes | 26 | 26 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Different | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nordic | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Problem | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 63%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Car / Vehicle | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Honestly | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 85%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ times | No | 15 | 15 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Green | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Korea / Korean | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Legality | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Collateral | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
7 matches for “Economy”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
So the economy has been like completely destroyed. they're at a stalemate compared to like where they used to be and then you have these…
…from those jobs has just gone away completely. It's gone from the economy. And then you top it off with the rising fuel costs from…
…you need to do a foreign currency exchange, maybe to like handle the import or export of goods that would allow your economy to flourish.
…And I certainly it feels like both sides. Actually, the entire world economy and Iran economy is all taking simultaneous pain until I guess somebody…
…been pretty following it closely, is just a testament to the weird interconnected nature of the global economy and how pressures make insane things possible.
Where the listed words were said
…on Lemonade Stand and I've been arguing with these two because I think Michael Babaro would be the perfect guest on The Yard and you…
…If you pull up, and especially we're going to be talking- I'm nicer than Trump is. You see Trump talking about Ken Paxton? It's crazy.
But anyways, because of this, we are seeing a lot of money and a lot of different strategies being attempted in Texas, as we've talked…
…some degree of political ads that are riling up right now. And I thought that there were two very interesting ones that I actually happened.
disconnect as to like what this technology means to different people right like this older judge doesn't even, he's literally in the opposite direction of…
…Hormuz is because number one They were afraid of getting hit by Iranian drones But number two is they couldn't get insured Because even if…
…the check. But we didn't win. Okay, I do. I have the Nordic fun fact next. Yes, dude. But I want to hold on to…
Like their energy security is a big problem right now. And it's just, that's fucking wild to think about the level of influence that another…
…the years they're currently being investigated on, the ones I've highlighted in red here, though it's possible this has continued in the years on the…
…you guys see the story of the man who died in a vehicle accident? And then when the judge was deciding the punishment, the defendant…
…was cool. I like that all those Nordic funbacks end up in Ukraine eventually. You know there's other countries, Hayden. Not just Ukraine and Russia…
Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Nuance is dead. Honestly, I did want to make a quick comment about it, which was, I think, like, it's funny…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-10-07:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-10-07:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP