Will “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” was said on The Last Word in 2 of 7 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 14, 2026 (29%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
- Probability
- 45% · n=7
- Settled
- 2/7 (29%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 1 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Unconstitutional / Constitution / Constitutional | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Unconstitutional / Constitution / Constitutional | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” was said on The Last Word in 2 of 7 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 14, 2026 (29%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
- What is the probability “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/constitution-or-constitutional-or-unconstitutional (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=constitution%20%2F%20constitutional%20%2F%20unconstitutional · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP