Will “Supreme Court” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Supreme Court” was said on The Last Word in 4 of 6 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 24, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 4/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Supreme Court
- Probability
- 42% · n=6
- Settled
- 4/6 (67%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Supreme Court |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Supreme Court” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Supreme Court” was said on The Last Word in 4 of 6 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 24, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
- What is the probability “Supreme Court” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Supreme Court’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/supreme-court (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=supreme%20court · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP