Will “Democracy” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Democracy” was said on The Last Word in 5 of 9 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 13, 2026 (56%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

52%from settlement history only · n=9counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=democracy

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

Democracy

Probability
52% · n=9
Settled
5/9 (56%)
Last 8 episodes
said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Raphael Warnockguest24:17In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Cory Booker say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted.

Cory Bookerguest44:26In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 9 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 7, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes1
Oct 5, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes1
Jun 30, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes–
Jun 9, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo–
May 28, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo–
May 20, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes–
Apr 14, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo–
Feb 13, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo–

Questions

How often is “Democracy” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Democracy” was said on The Last Word in 5 of 9 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 13, 2026 (56%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
What is the probability “Democracy” is said on The Last Word next time?
52%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Democracy’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/democracy (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=democracy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP