Donald Trump: Interview, Jan 21, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during CNBC interview?
Markets
12 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrel | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 42%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 51%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 7+ times | No | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Russia 7+ times | No | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Dictator | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| House / Housing | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Mortgage | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unaffordable Care Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President Xi | No | 39%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-cnbc-interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP