Will Jon Ossoff say “Election”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jon Ossoff said “Election” at 15 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (83%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 7 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 14, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jon Ossoff
Election
- Probability
- 48% · n=18
- Settled
- 15/18 (83%)
- Last 7 episodes
- said in 7 of 7
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 10 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 11 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Election |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Jon Ossoff say “Election”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jon Ossoff said “Election” at 15 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (83%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Jon Ossoff says “Election” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jon Ossoff: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jon-ossoff/words/election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jon-ossoff&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jon-ossoff&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP