Will JD Vance say “China” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “China” 5+ times at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 28, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
China 5+ times
- Probability
- 36% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Democrats take control of Congress, we will lose the AI race to China, but we'll also lose a lot else. You will see higher energy…
A lot of it has come from mainland China. We're certainly aware of that, but here's what I'll say. First of all, we've made incredible…
Can I ask, what about China, if I could? China has not made one soybean purchase this year in the United States. I talked to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2024 | China 5+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Aug 28, 2024 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “China 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “China” 5+ times at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 28, 2024.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “China 5+ times” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘China 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/china-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=china%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP