Will Gavin Newsom say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “ICE / National Guard” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 6, 2026 (67%), most recently on Feb 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 55% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 6, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “ICE / National Guard”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “ICE / National Guard” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 6, 2026 (67%), most recently on Feb 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP