Will Gavin Newsom say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Fraud” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
41%from settlement history only · n=9counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 3/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
Fraud
- Probability
- 41% · n=9
- Settled
- 3/9 (33%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Fraud” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Fraud” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP