Will Gavin Newsom say “Crisis”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Crisis” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (67%), most recently on Jan 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
54%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
Crisis
- Probability
- 54% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “Crisis”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Crisis” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (67%), most recently on Jan 16, 2026.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Crisis” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Crisis’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/crisis (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=crisis · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP