Will Gavin Newsom say “ICE / Border”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “ICE / Border” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 20, 2026 (43%), most recently on Feb 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
ICE / Border
- Probability
- 42% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | ICE / Border |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 3, 2026 | ICE / Border | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ICE / Border | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 25, 2026 | ICE / Border | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 23, 2026 | ICE / Border | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ICE / Border | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ICE / Border | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “ICE / Border”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “ICE / Border” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 20, 2026 (43%), most recently on Feb 26, 2026.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “ICE / Border” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘ICE / Border’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/border-or-ice (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=border%20%2F%20ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP