NYT front-page headlines, September 28–October 4, 2026
In the week ending Oct 4, 2026, 5 of the 11 words Polymarket listed appeared in front-page headlines; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
11 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 72%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 62%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Fear | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 60%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Star | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Vote / Voter / Votes | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Space | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fashion | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lawyer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Party | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPrint page (OCR) · The New York Times, front page (print) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
High Gas and Mortgage Rates Are Tailing Trump to Midterms
Trapped Between Iran and Washington as It Wrestles Militias
Fear in the Heart of Kyiv
Family Apartment in Ukraine Evaded Damage for Years, Awaiting the Inevitable
In India, a Food Safety Inspector Is a Rock Star
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/nyt-front-page:2026-10-04:front_page · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=nyt-front-page:2026-10-04:front_page · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP