The New York Times (front page): Front page, Aug 9, 2026
Polymarket What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 3 - August 9)
Markets
15 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 68%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Risk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fame | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strike / Struck | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote / Voter / Votes | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Japan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woman | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| 5th / Fifth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Earthquake / Quake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Star | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Liberation | No | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | No | 23%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-the-nyt-front-page-headlines-say-this-week-august-3-august-9-20260731155626110 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP