NYT front-page headlines, August 17–23, 2026
In the week ending Aug 23, 2026, 8 of the 14 words Polymarket listed appeared in front-page headlines; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 67%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 65%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Star | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Race | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Japan | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fear | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hot / Heat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woman | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Party | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Spain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPrint page (OCR) · The New York Times, front page (print) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
THWARTED TRUMP THREATENS OMAN AS TRUCE EXPIRES
U.S. Military Is Tripped Up In A.I. Race
OIL GIANTS IN GULF SPRINT TO EXPAND RESERVES ABROAD
Star of ‘Nashville’ and ‘Heroes’ Jaguars and the Border
Held by Russia, Ukrainian Feels ‘Crushing’ Fear
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/nyt-front-page:2026-08-23:front_page · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=nyt-front-page:2026-08-23:front_page · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP