The New York Times (front page): Front page, Aug 16, 2026
Polymarket What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16)
Markets
14 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hot / Heat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Race | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woman | Yes | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Earthquake / Quake | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Risk | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Eclipse / Sun | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Party | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockade | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Star | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | No | 22%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-the-nyt-front-page-headlines-say-this-week-august-10-august-16-20260807161735349 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP