NYT front-page headlines, October 5–11, 2026
In the week ending Oct 11, 2026, 11 of the 15 words Polymarket listed appeared in front-page headlines; Parrot’s count agreed with 14 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 15- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 73%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Justice / Judge | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 64%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Star | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Brazil | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prize | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Woman | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPrint page (OCR) · The New York Times, front page (print) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
Deal Meshes Russian Oil, Ukraine and Trump Allies
Justices Tangle in Climate Case
New Flares Amid U.S.-Iran War Defense Turns on This Metal Faith, Love and Action
Peace Prize Goes to a Jurist Who Rebuked Israel
‘Hamilton’ Star, Back Onstage
‘Phoenix Boys’ Manage a Pipeline to Mexico
An Unexpected Wave for Brazil’s Right Wing
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/nyt-front-page:2026-10-11:front_page · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=nyt-front-page:2026-10-11:front_page · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP