The New York Times (front page): Front page, May 31, 2026

By May 31Front pageHistory onlyThe New York Times (front page)

Updated

Markets

26 words · 5 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Oil Yes55%n=3 from settlement history–
Iran Yes50%n=2 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Deal Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Trump Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Amsterdam No–new new word, no probability yet–
Apartheid No–new new word, no probability yet–
Border No–new new word, no probability yet–
Brainwash No–new new word, no probability yet–
Budget No–new new word, no probability yet–
Croatia No–new new word, no probability yet–
Crooked No–new new word, no probability yet–
Dolphin No–new new word, no probability yet–
Garden / Grove No–new new word, no probability yet–
Gaza No–new new word, no probability yet–
Globalization No–new new word, no probability yet–
Inflation No–new new word, no probability yet–
Prime Minister No–new new word, no probability yet–
Radical Islamic No–new new word, no probability yet–
Reform No–new new word, no probability yet–
Rigged No–new new word, no probability yet–
Senate No–new new word, no probability yet–
Slave No–new new word, no probability yet–
Stadium No–new new word, no probability yet–
United Nations No–new new word, no probability yet–
Stupid No–n=1 too little history for a probability–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

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