The New York Times (front page): Front page, Aug 2, 2026
Polymarket What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 27 - August 2)
Markets
19 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 66%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 66%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 65%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deal | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fear | Yes | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Woman | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reserve | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Liberation | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | No | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-the-nyt-front-page-headlines-say-this-week-july-27-august-2-20260724154704322 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP