Jerome Powell: Keynote, May 25, 2025
Polymarket What will Powell say at Princeton Commencement Speech?
Markets
18 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| America | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federal Reserve 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Friends | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Parents | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good afternoon | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alumni | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Banking / Banker | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Debt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Degree 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Future | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Money | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Princeton 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank you 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-powell-say-at-princeton-commencement-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP