Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said on Saturday Night Live next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on Saturday Night Live in 2 of 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 2, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 9, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Saturday Night Live
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 32% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Saturday Night Live yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Polymarket | No |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down” said on Saturday Night Live?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on Saturday Night Live in 2 of 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 2, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 9, 2025.
- What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on Saturday Night Live next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Saturday Night Live: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/saturday-night-live/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=saturday-night-live&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=saturday-night-live&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP