Saturday Night Live: Episode, May 17, 2026
Kalshi What will be said during SNL Weekend Update?
Markets
18 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: any cast member Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Study | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 27%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hantavirus | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cornell | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kevin / Hart | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tucker / Carlson | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire / Blockade | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alien | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSNLMENTION-26MAY17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP