Saturday Night Live: Episode, May 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Will Ferrell say during his SNL opening monologue?
Markets
12 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Anchorman | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hawk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Netflix | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Podcast | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ron / Burgundy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talladega Nights | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mayor / Mamdani | No | 14%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 14%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSNLMENTION-26MAY16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP