Saturday Night Live: Episode, May 3, 2026
Kalshi What will be said during SNL Weekend Update?
Markets
15 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: any cast member Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein / Island | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| King | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Melania | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 17%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Study | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| JPMorgan / JPM | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kimmel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Secret Service | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vrabel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / NICE | No | 19%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSNLMENTION-26MAY03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP