Will Donald Trump say “Nasty”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nasty” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2024 (71%), most recently on Jul 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 5/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nasty
- Probability
- 47% · n=7
- Settled
- 5/7 (71%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…my wife has always considered me a loser. She thinks she was nasty. She was always calling me bad names. I'd invest in stocks and…
…that these people can be reporters or anchors. She's screaming. She's a nasty person. I've had a lot of problems with it. Fake person. She…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Nasty |  Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Nasty | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Nasty | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Nasty | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Nasty | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Nasty |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Nasty | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nasty”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nasty” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2024 (71%), most recently on Jul 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nasty” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nasty’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nasty (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nasty · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP