Will Donald Trump say “Mike / Johnson”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mike / Johnson” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 11, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Mike / Johnson
- Probability
- 41% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…So, Byron and Ashley, please inform the Speaker of the House of Representatives, James Michael Johnson. You didn't know his first name was James. James
…So, please inform our great Speaker of the House of Representatives, James Michael Johnson. I bet you didn't know that James was there, right? I
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | Mike / Johnson |  Polymarket | Yes |
| May 16, 2025 | Mike / Johnson | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Mike / Johnson”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mike / Johnson” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 11, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Mike / Johnson” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Mike / Johnson’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/johnson-or-mike (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=johnson%20%2F%20mike · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP