# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · rally 2024-10-03 · 21 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-michigan-rally-oct-3 · as_of 2026-10-27T09:41:58Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2024-10-03 · tn/th blank: no rally transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-michigan-rally-oct-3 (every P row; the listed term = w): This is a market on predicting the statements made by Trump during a town hall event in North Carolina.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Border 15+ times	border#15	15	12	9	0.75	nYYYYYYYnY	0.76	hist	yes
Israel	israel	1	8	8	1	YYYYYYYY	0.75	hist	yes
Million 10+times	million#10	10	5	5	1	YYYYY	0.72	hist	yes
Trans	tran	1	10	6	0.6	nYnYYYYnnY	0.65	hist	yes
Border 25+ times	border#25	25	7	4	0.57	nnYYYYn	0.59	hist	no
Debate	debate	1	4	3	0.75	YYYn	0.57	hist	yes
Make America Affordable Again	make america affordable again	1	1	1	1	Y	0.54	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	yes
China 10+ times	china#10	10	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.53	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.53	hist	yes
MAGA 3+ times	maga#3	3	4	2	0.5	YnYn	0.53	hist	yes
World War 3	world war 3	1	6	3	0.5	YnnnYY	0.51	hist	yes
Tax Queen	tax queen	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.5	hist	yes
Tampon	tampon	1	18	9	0.5	YnnYnnnnnn	0.49	hist	no
Comrade Kamala	comrade kamala	1	5	2	0.4	YYnnn	0.45	hist	yes
Mentally Impaired/Disabled	disabled|mentally impaired	1	0	0			0.45	hist	no
Crypto/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	17	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.12	hist	no
Illegal alien	illegal alien	1	0	0			0.5	prior	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	0	0			0.5	prior	yes
Missile defense shield	missile defense shield	1	0	0			0.5	prior	yes
Tax 10+ times	tax#10	10	0	0			0.5	prior	yes